Michael Hilliard | From Geopolitical Ghostwriting To 'The Red Line Podcast'

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Micheal Hilliard is a geopolitical analyst host and creator of 'The Red Line Podcast'… and! a fellow Aussie coming to us today from Australia’s glorious West coast capital, Perth.

Micheal and his team with the 'Red Line' take a deep fortnightly dive into a eclectic mix of narrow geopolitical topics … everything from the second hand market for nuclear weapons to the growth of Chinese private military groups...

And so therefore, and needless to say, the 'Red Line'  is brilliant and if you have anything geopolitical populating your new episodes feed you'd be smart to too add the red line to your subscriptions.

This is michael’s second appearance on the pod… in his first appearance he hinted a time in his life when he was living in Kazakstan ghostwriting geopolitical analysis and this tidbit has been on my mind ever since.

Therefore this pod we do Michael Hilliard…
Touring as a bass player in a rock n roll bandTid bits on TurkmenistanTop to bottom the world of geopolitics ghostwritingIndonesia from Australia’s perspectiveSerendipity… and much more

• 00:00 – Who Is Michael Hilliard
• 03:15 – Michael's Early Story (Touring As A Base Player)
• 17:05 – Turning Geopolitical 
• 19:15 – Turkmenistan Is Worse Than North Korea
• 29:31 – Transitioning From Rock n Roll To Journalism
• 32:35 – Geopolitical Ghostwriting (Top To Bottom)
• 47:05 – 'The Red Line Podcast'
• 1:00:32 – Indonesia's Geopolitics
• 1:16:06 – Who Are The Journalist's You Most Admire
• 1:19:59 - The Business Of The Red Line
• 1:23:55 - Podcasting Landscape In Australia
• 1:30:45 – Final 3 Questions… Serendipity, Fictional Character, Country Bullish On

Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode

• Geopolitics Starter Pack
• Michael Hilliard First Appearance

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Personally, I think Kazakhstan is underrated uh for a whole bunch of reasons. Their economy's going well. Uh the people are the most lovely in the entire world. Uh I you get you know, you you look lost for more than 10 seconds, someone will come up and ask you, you know, if you if you need help. Uh economy-wise, I'm quite bullish on Indonesia in probably the sort of 10 to 15 year mark. Uh, I think Mongolia's got a good capacity to do a bit more than it has at the moment. Um I think the DRC could do a little better if it you know gets some of the problems solved in the north, but that's a big if. Um I'm very bullish on Poland going forward. They're very much becoming a centerpiece within European politics. Um I would not be shocked to see Romania do quite well uh in the next little while. Russia's obviously probably due for a bit of a bounce back um once this whole conundrum fixes itself. Uh conundrum I mean terrible, terrible military conundrum. Um by conundrum, I mean catastrophe. Slight hiccup by losing my gear tanks.

SPEAKER_02 1:04

Um Michael Hilleed is a geopolitical analyst, host, and creator of the Red Line podcast. Michael and his team uh with the Red Line take a deep, deep fortnightly dive into an eclectic mix of narrow geopolitical topics. For instance, those which stood out to me recently were the second hand market for nuclear weapons, a very daunting title, Indonesia's Defense Dilemma, which is actually something Michael speaks about explicitly in this podcast, mostly related to Australia. And then another example is say the growth of Chinese private military groups. So, needless to say, uh, extremely interesting. The red line is brilliant, and if you have anything geopolitical populating your new episodes podcast feed, then you would be smart to add the red line to your subscriptions. This is Michael's second appearance on the pod, and from his first appearance, he hinted at a time in his life when he was living in Kazakhstan, ghostwriting geopolitical analysis, and this has just uh stayed top of my mind ever since. And so in this pod, we do Michael Hilliard. Michael Turing is a bass player in a rock and roll band. Um Tidbits on Turkmenistan, the world of geopolitics ghostwriting, really top to bottom, geopolitics ghostwriting. He does Indonesia top to bottom as well. Then there's a little bit of serendipity, and you can imagine to the question what country are you most bullish on, Michael Hilliard has an entire global response. He really just goes around the map and gives you the bull case or the bear case. Um, so definitely hang around to the end for that. Finally, a big limitation of podcast growth is discovery. Word of mouth is by far the strongest, but it's also the slowest. And I'm trying to make something happen on YouTube. Therefore, if you prefer consuming a podcast there, then you'll find a link to that in this podcast description. But as well, also embrace the newsletter and as per, pump your good, good juice into the algorithm with five stars on Spotify and five stars on Apple. And finally, with absolutely no further ado, here is the host of the red line, Michael Hilliard. So I first spoke to you a couple of years ago. I was a huge fan of the pod, I mean, still a huge fan of the pod. Um and we spoke for a while, and you sort of teased out these these details from your past as a ghostwriter and the journalism, and I found it also interesting. But before we get up to that serendipitous experience in Russia that pulled you in this direction, tell me just more about yourself before that. You know, what were you like as a kid? Where are you from? Did you ever have these sort of geo geopolitical dreams, etc.?

SPEAKER_01 3:48

Um, well, that's I mean, it's very odd for me to chat about myself. It's uh it's quite rare. Um so as a kid, I grew up in a a fairly standard house, nothing out of the ordinary. Um, my father was a naval commander, uh, which makes some sense. Uh but yeah, for a time before I got into the world of geopolitics, I was in a uh touring band and uh mixing sound and doing events around the country and and doing that and being that kind of reckless, you know, young uh you know, 18, 20-year-old kid um before I got into sort of music writing, and that took me into the ghostwriting. So yeah, nothing generally too crazy, I think, out of the ordinary. But yeah, it was a a weird path to get into geopolitics, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 4:30

I mean that's pretty exciting. Touring with a band seems a bit out of the ordinary. How'd you end up doing that?

SPEAKER_01 4:36

I'd always liked music, like I always really liked music. I'd probably been playing for years. Um, you know, when I was, I think I would have been 12, 13, or maybe even 14, uh, all my friends, you know, were you know classic sort of late mid-2000s where everyone's in a band and everyone's you know, I like I'm not an attractive guy, and if I if I wanted to attract any girls, then obviously I was gonna have to join a band. That's just what you had to do. Um, so I I joined a band as a bass player because I wasn't good enough to play guitar, um, which is gonna offend every bass player ever. Uh and I yeah, was playing in in a hardcore, you know, metal band or high in various bands for a long time, really enjoyed that, and then started working on you know records for my bands and helping other bands and and kind of all went from there. But yeah, it was a weird, uh, weird world. I'm still there's photos of me when I'm sort of uh 18 with my long uh mop-like hair and uh wearing Parkway Drive shirts and and and the whole deal probably out there somewhere still.

SPEAKER_02 5:35

Mate, that's absolutely epic. Are you uh are you guys still on Spotify or were you ever?

SPEAKER_01 5:40

We are, yeah. A couple of my bands. I've got a couple of bands on Spotify still. Um yeah, very long time ago. Um, although we had our entire uh play count erased a few years ago and I forgot to pay the bell, which is a bit annoying. But there are music videos out there and and the whole deal, but yeah, it's uh it's a uh very again, such an odd sort of path into this one. But yeah, it's a lot of good stories, a lot of uh interesting times. Um weirdly enough, uh like mo uh the singer of that band, my main band I did touring with is actually in uh uh works for the government over in Australia now. And uh yeah, it's it's just a weird world that we both uh really enjoyed touring and and playing in bands and uh yeah, I guess playing you know rock indie kind of stuff for a very long time. Is music still a big part of your life? Not as much these days. I I I I work unfortunately about 90 uh 90-something hours a week at the moment, so there's not much time to uh do much outside of work these days, but you know, I still do pick up the guitar occasionally and uh yeah, still I still do really do enjoy it and play occasionally. And if a friend says, hey, I need a bass player or a guitar player to fill in for a show or something, I might I might go do that. But yeah, I'm uh nowhere near as uh as good as I as I was, and I think I'm a bit uh I'm becoming too much of an old man to jump off amps and you know that all that all that stuff I used to do back in the day.

SPEAKER_02 7:08

That's a pretty epic pivot from uh the bass player into a geopolitical analyst. But it makes me think of this great quote from Christopher Hitchens was sort of lives with me. Um he was asked about his own sort of career and job prospects, etc., when he was a relatively young man, and he said that he's never ever been interested in a career, instead, he just wanted to have a life, you know, he wanted it to be interesting. Um, and if I just project onto you know your experience, the little of it that I know, but being able to be a part of a band, tour a country, I mean, forget money, forget career ambition, etc. It's like what a life. And to be able to j to pivot into what you went into as well, how does that make you feel? That idea of wanting to have a life, not a career.

SPEAKER_01 8:00

That's exactly it. Like that's pretty much smack on the mark. Um, you know, I I see friends who have gone into investment banking or have gone into uh, you know, high-powered government jobs or whatever it is, and then you know, it seems like a you know, very kind of boring lot. I get it, you know, it's it's interesting they get to do what they want to do sometimes, and you know, I don't I don't knock it, you know, if that's what they want to do, that's something they want to do. But you know, if they were to get hit by a bus by tomorrow tomorrow, you know, heaven forbid, uh what stories they would have to remember, you know, they would have at a at a party or what stories they they remember at the end, uh, you know, I don't think would be as interesting. Um years of doing stuff that you know is not the most financially incentivized, but you know, it definitely gives you a bunch of you know interesting stories, and I think I think the aim is that no matter what uh you know what my child does, uh I'll always be able to outdo him with a well, you know, that's cool, but your dad did this. Has it always been Perth? Uh I've been based in Perth for you know I grew up south of Perth. Um I've usually always been based out of here, but I've been, you know, it's a it's a really interesting city because it is it's not too far from everywhere else. I mean it's far from most places. There's always a nasty flood at the beginning and end of everything, but uh, you know, it's better to go get to from the east uh you know to the rest of the world, you know, it's not too far from the east coast, it's better time zone for most things. Um but yeah, it's kind of always had a I guess an address somewhere in Perth, I guess. Um but you know, for a lot of the time I was six months on the road, or I would be, you know, out of a you know, a year, it wouldn't be unusual that I would have spent nearly nine months of that on the road. So yeah, I mean Perth is is a uh great place to kind of base yourself out of. And I actually had a friend from uh from the UK who was working for the uh UK government come over here and and he was sort of transiting through. So took a man around Perth for a couple of days, and yeah, immediately he's like considering living here because it is like Perth is an amazingly beautiful city. Um, you know, the weather's great, the people are lovely, the the you know, cost of living is quite cheap. Uh, you know, we it's cheaper to fly to Bali than it is to the east coast, which I think says a lot about our uh our culture, I guess, as Perth. Um it's just it is the only place I think in the world where there's a bunch of high viz guys who are also wine snobs, um, which is very, very odd. You know, you see all these guys in uh you know uh you know bright full of accent being, oh no, no, the Shiraz here are absolutely god-awful. Uh it's a very odd city, but you know, it's a great place to be based out of, I guess. So you don't feel limitations being away from Sydney? Not really. I mean that's the thing. It's it's I think it'd be a bit different if I worked in you know Australian foreign policy. Um when you do, there is, you know, when you do work for the Australian government, but you're based off here, you are flying back and forth all the time. Um but these days, if you know if you're working, you know, on Russia or Europe or any of those things, then you can be kind of based anywhere if you if you're bouncing between, you know, all the time. Uh but no, generally Sydney, I I can't stand the traffic. Um the people aren't quite as nice. Um, I think you know, it doesn't take alcoholism as a sport like Perth does, uh, which is always nice. Um, you know, it's yeah, it's just a really comfortable place to be. And obviously my partner has got lots of family here, and I've got family here. And yeah, again, it's it the you know the weather is can't be beaten, frankly, I don't have to deal with Sydney people, which is always nice as well.

SPEAKER_02 11:28

One of the great, great, un unsung heroes of the of all the technology that we have available to us. We really can do uh most jobs from wherever we we choose, if if you can, you know, make it work for yourself. But you have by its very, very definition, an extremely international uh schedule and as well uh contact base, and you're working with people outside of your own city, yet you can still live there.

SPEAKER_01 11:56

Yeah, and it's always interesting though when I have to go to you know go to uh uh Washington, um, and I sort of tell when I get to Washington, I say, you know, I'm almost as far away from home as I can be, because if I was to go into my house and dig right through the ground, I'd come out just near the Bahamas. Um and it's about a three half an hour flight from Washington. Um so yeah, every time I have to go on uh on uh back to the States, good god, it's a that's a very long flight. Uh but generally, yeah, it's it's not too far from you know, not too far from Central Asia or Southeast Asia or China, and yeah, and it's at least it's a it's a good time zone, I guess, to work in. Do you spend much time on the road these days? I do. I spend uh it's been a bit quiet last kind of couple of months, um, because I'm on the project at the moment, but yeah, I'm still on the road quite often. Um, you know, that's why, you know, I guess if if you're a keen listener of the red line, you'll kind of know some episodes are filmed a bit in advance, others are uh as they come out. But yeah, we it's always sort of uh interesting to kind of have to be, you know, I'll be in rural Tajikistan and uh having to record a quick voiceover or a quick you know a line of an episode somewhere because it's okay, well something changed in this, and okay, this fact wasn't right, so I have to quickly go in and you know record a uh two lines in a kitchen somewhere in Jajikistan, uh because it's the only place you can get good Wi-Fi. So yeah, it's uh always always a fun time.

SPEAKER_02 13:23

So were you academically inclined as um as a teenager?

SPEAKER_01 13:28

Not as much. You know, I I was probably I was definitely not an an an A-level student uh in high school. Um again, because I was gonna be a musician, man, I was gonna be a rock star, and you don't need grades for that. Uh, but I did later on go on to a uh degree in international relations and economics. So I guess that I kind of crushed those rock star dreams pretty quick when that first supply and demand graph came in. Um but yeah, no, it's uh you know, academic is really it's an interesting world. And I guess the weird bit is you went go, you know, going from, you know, a you know, you come out of high school and you have this kind of way of writing, and you if you're you know writing for a magazine at the time and you learn how to write, you know, for a very generalized audience, you write into a much younger audience, you go into academia, and then you've got to write for an academic audience, and then when you get out of academia, you realize that you actually have to go back to writing for a very generalized audience. Particularly, you know, it it's very weird if you're briefing congressmen or you're briefing, you know, CEOs, quite often you have to bring it right back down to a really basic level and and give people analogies and make jokes and kind of uh explain things in a way that people can grip around if they know nothing about the subject. So it is it's a very weird, you know, particularly coming off, you know, where I'll write a really you know detailed report about you know economic movements of of uh you know tank production within the Russian system, and then I'll go off and do a red line episode where it's hey, let's take let's take this concept and then make it uh somehow listen understandable to a general audience without having to uh you know make some joke or an analogy or some or you know pitch it around some weird story so that people kind of get that you know get the the understanding of it without me having to sit there and and become a Excel spreadsheet for 20 minutes. So yeah, uh in in long way around with the question, I guess. But yeah, academia, it's interesting. Um, but I think it's a little more interesting to sit on the other side of it.

SPEAKER_02 15:23

But I'm just thinking, you know, did you have the sort of latent interest in trying to make sense for how the world works as you're touring with the band, you know, in your downtime, you're maybe consuming an audiobook, listening to a podcast, or trying to have some other type of interesting yeah.

SPEAKER_01 15:41

Yeah, yeah, because it is you know, if you understand how the world works, you get it's you know, as it's the closest you'll ever get to having a crystal ball. You know, if you understand the economics of things, you understand how you know one thing is going to affect another, it it gives you this ability to you know anticipate what is going to come up in the world, and that is hugely, hugely important. Uh and it's also just inherently interesting. It is, it is. I I remember, you know, uh a couple of days ago talking with a with a colleague of mine who was sort of asking, oh, why is you know Emmanuel Macron in in Kazakhstan? And I said to him, Oh, well, obviously it's because of Niger. And it's like, oh well, what do you mean? It's like, well, Niger had a coup a little while ago, and now the uranium deals are a bit up in the air, and Total's done this, and that afflict Algeria, and now because Algeria is this way, now Macron has to go off to Kazakhstan to see if he can secure a little uranium. Uh and it just kind of shows how, you know, as much as you can specialise in one area or you can focus on a bit of geopolitics, you have to kind of you can watch one thing happen and know that down the line, you know, how it's gonna affect something else down there. Um yeah, and it it is interesting that you if you kind of even if you just have a basics of of, and I don't think I know everything about everything, but if you even if you have the basics or or you surround yourself with people who are quite clever on certain subjects, um, you can sort of pick what's gonna happen, you know, most of the time ahead of time, so which is always nice.

SPEAKER_02 17:03

Alright, so this serendipitous moment that sort of uh looking back at least appears to be a fork in the road. You and your mate go on a trip to Russia and then you meet this uh ghost writer, conflict journalist in a bar.

SPEAKER_01 17:19

Yeah, well that was a bit bit later on. So I went to Russia with a you know, got very, very drunk with a with a good, very good friend of mine, and we bought tickets to Russia, um, to which was probably not the smartest idea, but you know, whatever. So we decided that, you know, when we woke up a little bit worse for wear, uh we would go to Russia, and we did. It was I had a fantastic time and really enjoyed travelling that part of the world, and then I went for a couple of other trips, and I think it was the trip after that, or two two trips in that region after that, um, that I bumped into a ghostwriter in Romania uh who had just come out of Russia as well. And yeah, we ended up kind of teaming up, and you know, he was really good at uh he'd already very much embedded in the industry, was really big writing for other people. Um, but yeah, it was he had the ability to kind of put data together and you know understand the economics and and what drives the things, but just couldn't, you know, write it for a general audience, and that's where you know my speciality was the opposite side of that. Um so yeah, working together was uh a bit of a fork in the road. But yeah, it was trying to give you know make it uh more understandable. You know, this is the thing I find with way too many academic papers that you know are amazingly, amazingly written. This just you know the amount of data we have available to us in you know in today's day and age is just incredible. But when I read most of the papers that I'm forced to read all day, it's a slog. Um and I won't, you know, I'm not gonna throw any names under the bus, but you know, it is a just once you wish someone would kind of put an analogy in there or would just, you know, do things like put yardstick in. Um I remember having a chat with one of my new writers a little while ago going, you know, it's tiny little things that you don't think about until you do think about them. And a classic my classic of a go-to is, you know, if I say Turkmenistan is a dictatorship, everyone goes, Well, yeah, it's a dictatorship, whatever, yeah, I get it, never fought. But if I go, you know, Turkmenistan is lower than North Korea on the freedom scale. People go, holy mother of God, okay, that is a dictatorship. And it's that it's little things like that of just giving people, you know, writing it a little bit differently with telling the exact same facts, but then you get a completely different understanding of what the issue is. Um, yeah, and that's effectively what what I've been trying to work on for years and years and years is trying to break down some of these really odd, complex, weird geopolitical geopolitical issues down to a more um not dumbed down isn't the right word, but just make it more digestible, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 19:50

That's an insane statistic. How can it be the case that there is a country that has uh a lower freedom index than North Korea?

SPEAKER_01 19:58

There is, I think there's about three. No, there's two, sorry. It's South Sudan and uh Turkmenistan are the two that are lower. South Sudan is a whole other thing, but Turkmenistan is genuinely a more crazy dictatorship than uh North Korea. I can tell you stories for days about that country. Yeah, tell us, tell us. So, wow, okay, Turkmenistan is a country where effectively they had a guy who came in right after the Soviet collapse uh named Nyazov, who you know decided that he wanted to be effectively a god emperor, and he gave himself the name of Turkmenbashi, uh, which effectively is like father of the Turkmen. And he wrote this book called Ruknama, which is this little pink book, and it got to the point in the country where when you went for your driving test, you wouldn't, you know, do you turn left or right at a stop sign? It would be when Turkmenbashi went to the lake, how many stones he throw in the lakes? You know, we are at a effectively the it's a very weird situation at the moment because the father who has been in for quite a long time since 06, uh Birdimu Khamedov, he has just handed to his son, but his son has kind of had a lot of power ripped to the Vada. But uh Berdimu Khamedov used to do lots of weird things. Like as a musician, nothing makes me laugh more than he'll play guitar on an acoustic guitar, and as the smoke and rises up from the floor right before the guitar solo, it gets to just about his nipple height where you can't see his hands move, and all of a sudden the music will change to this like shredding electric guitar, but you can't see his hands play, but he's definitely playing it.

SPEAKER_02 21:32

Ectic.

SPEAKER_01 21:32

Or the annual, you know, they run up the hill uh from Ashkabat right to the sort of top of the hill, and every year he pretty much wins it. But weirdly enough, he ducks off in the race and his helicopters up there as well. It's just weird things like that that just make Turkmenistan the weird place it is. Um yeah, it is pure cult of personality, horror horrifying, you know, other bits of bits of it as well. But yeah, it's a you know a city of marble. Run by a man who views himself as a pretty much a living god.

SPEAKER_02 22:06

Jesus. Give us the geopolitical scorecard for this country. What's their economy? What's their population? Where are they in the world?

SPEAKER_01 22:14

So in the world, they'd be north of Iran, between Iran, Afghanistan, you know, a little bit of the west of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It's got quite a small population, depending on if you want to go on the official numbers or whether you want to go with the real numbers, which is even smaller. It is a gas giant, though. So this is a nation that effectively has a population of, depending on who you ask, you know, somewhere between two and four million, uh, but has the same amount of gas as Qatar sitting in the ground. But because of geopolitics and a few other bits and pieces, and the fact that they can't really export much through Iran or Afghanistan because no one really wants to build a big pipe through Afghanistan or anything that explodes at the moment, uh, they pretty much put everything they have toward, you know, uh Russia or China, which China at one point had bought like 90 or 86% of their exports, uh, because it's all just natural gas. So you have this very closed-off society where, you know, the little oddities like the fact that their you know Ashkabad airport is as big as Tel Aviv. It's a massive airport. But because of how difficult it is to get tourist visas, they only see, you know, it's something like 60,000 tourists a year, which like that's what Heathrow will go through in like an hour and a bit. Uh, and that's what they see a year. But it's this airport that's massive. It's that kind of a country where the you know the government is so you know entrenched in what it wants to do. Uh, it hasn't, you know, very much helped its people in a very long time. And they are going through a crisis at the moment where you know, things like they're worried about people leaving the country, so they've just lobbied Turkey to get rid of the visa-free travel because too many people were leaving. Uh, they made it so your passport, once it expires, you can only get uh renew back in Turkmenistan. So Turkmen's have to come back to Turkmenistan to get their passports renewed. Um yeah, it is a very, very odd country who has, weirdly enough, a a pretty decent military in a lot of ways. Um, you know, lots of higher tech stuff, they're very, very good at, you know, probably, you know, as much as they can't invade anyone very well, what they can do really well is is isolate, cut off, and break apart protests incredibly well. And they're very, very, very good at it. Right. You know, if there's a city that will have an uprising, you will find, you know, police, armored vehicles, everything there really quickly. It is just an odd country and it is completely locked down. Like they shut the internet off all the time, you know, very, very difficult to get info in and out of the place. If you want to go there, uh, you're pretty much gonna have to have a mind or every room will be bugged. I know there's like as a as another bit of a weird Turkmen uh information, you know, the the truckers quite often used to drive from Iran into Uzbekistan, but that means you cut across the kind of centre of Turkmenistan. And if everybody says it's it's a you know about 12-hour or 13-hour journey or whatever it was, um they were having too many truckers who were crashing because uh, you know, the truckers would get their passport stamped at one end of the Turkmenist Turkmenistan and have to race to the other side because they would only be given like an hour leeway either side uh before they had to be at the other side, otherwise they'd be arrested when they got there because they did not allow these truckers to stop. Uh what that meant though is that there was this massive market for meth at either end of the Turkmen border. So the truck drivers could all take it and go. You know, it's been a massive news in Turkmenistan that they're now allowing the truckers to stop at this one town in the middle, uh say at this one hotel, uh, and they can sleep there the night and then continue on in the in the morning. But the hotel's very much watched, and the truckers can't leave the ho you know leave to go, you know, mingle with the locals or anything like that. But it's that kind of a country where you know things that would be unfathomable anywhere else is just day-to-day news and took minutes time.

SPEAKER_02 26:07

Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. You force that totally arbitrary time window. All of a sudden, that's the only way to get across it. It's it's it that's absolutely wild. I can't believe I really've never wouldn't have been able to tell you where it was at a map, know absolutely nothing about the country. Are they are they significant in terms of who they're supplying their gas to? Do they have a lot of sanctions imposed on them?

SPEAKER_01 26:31

No, almost no say almost no sanctions imposed upon them. This is the weird thing. Obviously, we look at you know all these dictatorships around the world and you know sanctions and anti-US and yada yada. Um has kind of just flown under everybody's radar because they are part of their constitution and part of their entire national doctrine is to be as neutral as possible. They don't join, you know, as much as the to particularly the Turkmen security services have a lot of connections and and ties with Russia, uh and and you know, Russian uh heads of state and are very close with sort of the the ruling clans in Turkmenistan, the Turkmen government does not join official alliances and it's not genuinely a threat to anyone. You know, the Iranians don't view it as a giant threat. Afghanistan, uh, you know, the Turkmen have been happy to work with the United States to effectively help them do some refueling and logistics stuff over uh you know back when the war on terror was really kicking around. Um, you know, Uzbekistan kind of views them as a, well, you know, it's a close-up country, they're not really a threat. Um, it's just a bunch of gas. Uh so yeah, they've kind of gone under everyone's radar, which is really odd considering the uh the human rights record in the country.

SPEAKER_02 27:44

Yeah, that's that's totally wild. Is the explanation that it's just a blind spot? Yeah, pretty much. Yeah, okay.

SPEAKER_01 27:52

It's it's pretty much just because they don't raise any trouble. You know, you don't have you know, with a North Korea, they are very loud, they're boisterous, and that that's part of their foreign policy. You know, they are you know, it's it's no shock to anyone who watches North Korea that they're about to arc up, because they know they always did this every election cycle. But with Turkmenistan, they don't say peekaboo, they just don't say anything, they don't bother anyone, and it's very much a just leave us alone and we'll just keep sending gas everyone else's way. Uh and that's what's kept them effectively where they are at the moment, which is really interesting, is a sort of difference in policy between themselves and Pyongyang. Um, but yeah, generally, you know, a lot a lot of these countries in Central Asia were pretty harsh dictatorships. Uh Tajikistan still wears quite low. We're talking uh, you know, on the Freedom House's freedom scale, you know, Turkmenistan's a two out of a hundred, Tajikistan's a seven, uh Uzbekistan's, I think, growing, they're about a 18 at the moment, they're getting better. Kazakhstan's in the mid-30s, and Kyrgyzstan's falling very quickly. Um, but that's a whole other story. Yeah, whereas you know, the United States, maybe that's gonna be like 82, your Sweden where you are. If many so it's a 96 or it's a hundred out of a hundred, I know you guys tend to be right near the top. So yeah, it's uh interesting uh dichotomy between looking at Sweden and then looking at Turkmenistan, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 29:17

Remind me if we don't get to it later, but I'd love to hear you talk about Kirgistan as well. But I think what you just mate, like basically what you just said was a fascinating sliver into sort of what you can expect fortnightly from the red line. But return us to the timeline. So you're doing these tours for pleasure into Russia. I'm missing the piece for how you transition from a bassist to a journalist.

SPEAKER_01 29:40

So I was already at that point when I was touring, I was writing as a music journalist, um, interviewing bands and writing about festivals and records and artists. You know, it was just something I kind of fell into because I was, you know, in the touring scene, I kind of got what was going on, I could write. You know, if you're an editor and you have a writer who was also uh able to use the equipment and uh take photos and uh and record interviews and has you know a bit of an audio background, it just makes things a lot easier. So, you know, I I kind of got I think I got a lot of jobs in those early days because it's like, well, if we send Michael to go interview this band, then he can set up his own equipment, which is always nice. Um so yeah, I was a music writer for a long time, uh when I was touring and doing everything else, and you know, obviously that taught me how to do a bit of writing and how to write in that style, and that's you know kind of what you know wasn't a big shift to go from yeah, actually it wasn't as big a shift as people probably think it would be to go from music journalism to uh geopolitical stuff, because frankly, there's just as much gossiping. Actually, I think quite often the musicians are better behaved than the diplomats, I'll give you that.

SPEAKER_02 30:47

Oh, that's hilarious, right? Alright, so what's the what's the first genuinely geopolitical analyst um versus you know uh non-musical reporting? What's the first piece that you did or you were contracted to do?

SPEAKER_01 31:04

I well most of them I won't be able to actually say because if you as I said it was ghostwriting at the time, so you know it's not you sign massive of contracts saying that you can't say anything, which makes things complicated. Um you know. Um trying to think my first public piece.

SPEAKER_02 31:22

Maybe how old were you when when you first writing stuff on behalf of diplomats?

SPEAKER_01 31:27

I would have been about twenty three-24. Maybe yeah, around twenty-three-twenty-four. I mean, this is extremely exciting, right? Kind of. Again, it's it it's odd when you look back at it all, you know, kind of laid out the way we're doing at the moment, but at the time it just feels like it's you know, oh okay, that seems interesting, let's give that a shot. Um, you know, it it it is very odd to say, but it is uh, you know, at the time it was just something I thought, let's give it a shot and see how it goes. I mean that's how you know the red line, it's how a lot of this stuff has been. It's been a well, that seems like an interesting project, let's go for it. Um But yeah, at the time I don't think I don't think I realized the significance of it at the time, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 32:10

And so, for instance, some UK defence minister will hire you or fellow ghostwriters like you to compile a report that they can then slap their name on and say look what I did here, and it gives them more authority in their home country.

SPEAKER_01 32:28

Yes. So if you want if you're particularly a minister who wants to go for the role, you know, and isn't you know big on that role, you will write, you know, you'll pay someone else to write that for you. Or, you know, when you're the when you're the actual minister, you can get you know lots of guys from the Department of Defense and Emma and all sorts of stuff to help you write that. But at this early stage, particularly if you're you know, maybe even a candidate trying to go for it as well, it's always good to kind of have defense chops um, you know, and have a good opinion on some of these things can put yourself out as a serious candidate. So yeah, there is you'll find, particularly in the United States, is where it's like you most campaigns will effectively hire uh defence writers and foreign policy writers, even if they're really small candidates, because they need to have a, you know, when they get asked on you know on the you know uh campaign trail, hey, you know, mr uh what do you think about uh uh our India policy or what do you think about our Saudi Arabia policy, they need to come up with a a proper line because if they you know when they don't you end up with Gary Johnson saying, you know, what's what's a you know uh what's an Aleppo or what's a you know I can't remember what the what a line was years ago, but yeah, you know, it's if you get it wrong, it is something that will absolutely get pounded at you for the next few months. Uh yet if you get it right, most people won't even think about it. It's a very, very old world. And how big is the world? How big is the industry of ghostwriters doing the work you were doing? Huge. There's quite a lot. Um a lot of the time because ministers are you know, some of them are because they're just too busy, you know, they they don't, you know, no man no minister or CEO wants to spend, you know, 20 hours going through like some of the most boring reports you've ever read in your entire life, um, whether it be diplomatic cables or whether it be uh affect you know export reports or whatever it is. Uh so they'll just pay someone else to do that and give them the summary, which is very common as well. Uh ghostwriting, you know, if that's quite common for anyone who's trying to be in politics or is trying to write a book or even just wants to kind of add bits and pieces to their current report. Um, quite often it's, you know, you'll also get hired to write sections of bigger reports as well, is quite common. So let's say someone's writing a uh business case for you know starting a uh copper mine in you know Kazakhstan for sake of the argument. You know, you'll probably go and write this big business case and you'll make sure there's a couple of foreign policy guys in there to go, hey, here's what Kazakhstan's gonna do if you do that, but also here's the kind of the risk points in the region you'd have to worry about at that point. Uh and this is how you should build it into your business case. So yeah, sometimes it's like you are, you know, you read their stuff and you're just making small tweaks, and other times it's oh my god, none of this is gonna work. You have to pretty much start from scratch, and other times you're writing very large pieces, you know, it really just depends on what is on your docket that week. Uh, I think that's the weird bit of it, that it's it's different for every person and and every industry, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 35:26

Mate, it sounds like the most incredible education into how does the world work. If you're just thinking of an occupation, I mean get paid to learn all this stuff. I mean, forget the ego of needing to attach your name to it, but you're getting the resources to answer these interesting questions that are inherently interesting to you anyway, and forcing yourself to write them down on paper so you can actually understand them. I mean, maybe I'm just over-projecting here, but it does sound like a phenomenal way to spend your time.

SPEAKER_01 36:01

Yeah, it it's it's it's a good job if you really are interested in the subject matter, and that's the difference. You know, it is I think if you were had a passing fancy in geopolitics, I think you'd be really bored by reading, you know, diplomatic cables or transcripts or sitting through horrifyingly boring speeches by politicians because you know there's two lines in there that will actually outline their policy going forward. Um so I think anyone who works in the in in this industry, and whether it be on the red line or or anyone I work professionally or anything like that, they always tend to have an earphone in one ear at all times because you're just always listening to a uh you know, some terrible book that is badly voiced over, or it's a text-to-speech program reading a terrifyingly boring report, or some awful politician speech. Um so yeah, I think you know I have an ear an ear, like a uh headphone in my ear pretty much all the time. So we it's always a uh yeah, my wife pretty much at this point just if she sees me and needs to talk to me, she just pretty much yeah, taps the the pause button on my ear, and that that's uh the only way to really get a hold of me these days.

SPEAKER_02 37:09

So right now, some of my fellow Swedish comrades, they will be, for instance, ghostwriting reports on the implications of joining NATO from X, Y, and Z perspectives.

SPEAKER_01 37:21

Yep.

SPEAKER_02 37:22

That's an example.

SPEAKER_01 37:23

Yeah, so that will be absolutely so you you'll have lots of people who will either be, you know, doing it for you know, magazines, a lot of companies will be also right now starting business cases, you know, because obviously when you join NATO as a organ, you know, as a country, quite often, particular, particularly with Sweden, uh, who is going to be very much, you know, it's not as big a deal with Montenegro joining, or one of those really small countries. But with Sweden, there's so much infrastructure, there's so much going into this. And Sweden is such a it completely changes the defense dynamic of the Baltics. You know, it is chalk and cheese between you know reading, you know, how defence plans will be written pre- and post-Sweden. Um and effectively, NATO is going to put a lot of money in in, yeah, whether it be to sort of help communication lines, effectively help uh logistics happen better out of Sweden, you know, prepare for uh better defensiveness of Sweden. I know Sweden's uh reactivating a lot of their bases in Gotland, uh, which is a you know big deal for you guys, but it'll also be a case of a lot of businesses now in Sweden will be, you know, whether you make steel, whether you make helmets, whether you do uh do catering, whether you do anything of that kind of variety, you're probably going to be at this point thinking, how can I cash in on the NATO gravy train, or how can I uh be a part of this you know massive investment that'll be coming into Sweden at the moment? So everyone in Sweden, in Swedish industry, will be effectively preparing at the moment for this. Yeah. Or probably already has at this point.

SPEAKER_02 38:54

Absolutely amazing. And I imagine obviously it must differ uh depending on the project you're undertaking, how long it takes, etc. But typically, how much uh would you expect to get paid? Whether you want to speak from personal experience or just as you know, generally in the in the industry?

SPEAKER_01 39:10

It would completely depend on it's it's completely different from job to job, uh, and also how much you charge and what you want to do, and it depends how long it's gonna take. You know, some projects are you know, a six-month job, and others are like, hey, can you just read this, you know, read this three-page you know, case or study or whatever it is, and just tell me that I'm on the right track? You mean you get paid for you know, it's so varied, it will change completely differently compared to what you're doing.

SPEAKER_02 39:43

And we're would a ghostwriter be sought out because of their pre-existing political slant, or is the idea here typically that you just want objective down-the-line observation?

SPEAKER_01 39:55

Or are there also people looking for yeah, go on? This is a fascinating question. I'm really glad you asked it. So there are three, you know, effectively kind of three types you want to you can go. So some people will hire, you know, a really objective writer or a really objective firm to go look into this. And quite often that firm or that original sort of investigation, you actually do hire someone who's really good at what they do. That person you hire will almost a good chunk of the time not actually end up being the person that writes the final report. Now, that'll be effectively for the shareholders, for the CEOs, for people to look at and go, okay, to start up this copper mine or to build this you know new factory in Romania or whatever it is, that's how much it's gonna cost. And this is the risk, and this is what we have to worry about. And then you can hire other firms. Now, there are obviously think tanks you can get to do this as well. Some have complete political slants and leanings. Um, you know, if you want to get a really conservative answer, you go hire someone like the Heritage Foundation. And if you want to go hire someone uh for a complete, you know, left-leaning answer, you'd hire someone like the Australia Institute in Australia. Um, you know, you you hire those guys because you want a certain outcome. And then you obviously get the really, really hacky guys, uh, and I probably won't throw them under the bus to be polite, but who will come in and their first question as a consultant will be, uh, what would you what what are you hoping the answer for this question will be? And you will say to them, Oh, well, we're hoping that uh the case is good and that we, you know, we should start this operation in in Romania, and they'll go, fantastic, give us two months, and they'll give you back a report that suggests that that should be the way forward. Um, so yeah, you often have a complete report written that will be for the shareholders uh and for your internal use, so you actually know how much it's gonna cost, and then you have a report that you release to the public. Uh, it's a it's a very odd world.

SPEAKER_02 41:53

And and that report, which just confirms the outcome you already want, this is the one you ship around to the finances and the investors to actually get your copper mine prospecting off the ground or something like that.

SPEAKER_01 42:04

Absolutely. So if you think there's a you know 50-50 chance you make money, because that's what the real report says, you'll make sure that the you know the one that you have publicly commissioned will say there's an 80, 80, 90% chance you'll make money. Because that way you have more chance of getting capital coming in and more chance of other smaller companies buying in, and uh people aren't going to charge you as much interest on your loans, and there's a whole bunch of other things that come with it. Um, but yeah, it's it's very odd that uh there is this kind of entire industry of people built into uh creating reports to match what people want the reports to say such a fascinating world, eh?

SPEAKER_02 42:46

I mean are these mostly academics, or are they even say like undergrads who don't even have the qualifications, but it nonetheless equally talented and deeply interesting who are doing this sort of stuff, or is it tenured professors who no one knows their name outside of their extremely narrow niche, but nonetheless have just supreme expertise, and this is actually how they're you know paying for the car upgrade?

SPEAKER_01 43:12

Yeah, so the again if we talk about those sort of the two contrasting kind of reports you want written, if you're going for the the real report, uh quite often it'll be it'll be a combination of uh some finance guys, uh some tenured, some professors is probably not the right word, they don't do too much of this, but it'll be experts who quite often used to work intelligence. Um this whole industry is so full of spooks. Uh defense guys are quite often in it. Um, you know, yeah. You know, that kind of industry is who you get to journalists, are also quite common as well. Uh mostly it's a lot of things in that first report where it's you, you know, you'll be hiring someone because of their connections. And you know, if we were to start a mine here, which Rhyme organizations would we have to bribe to make sure the trucks get there on time. You know, that's sort of that's the sort of things you would hire for that initial report. Um when it comes to the sort of the hey, what do you want this report to say, guys? It is a combination of overworked undergrads and coked up sales managers. Um like a lot of those, you know, particularly some of the bigger consultancy firms are all just like lads who went to school with the CEO's son. You know, it's a absolute rag tag full of guys. There's some very, very smart people in there behind the hat behind the scenes. Um, but yeah, it's the guys that you usually have the meetings with in the boardroom are some of the weirdest, oddest people you deal with. Um they're very, very boisterous and they've got more money than they ever know what to do with. And they will go back to that poor intern who has a master's in economics and will say, you know, hey, here's the Excel spreadsheet. Make it say 22% profit, and I'll see you in three weeks.

SPEAKER_02 44:59

I'm having this real visceral moment right now. Occasionally, you know, you sort of you get to actually peek under the hood into the mechanics of how a certain um, you know, gear and lever within the economy and and and how the world works. It feels like this is this is really just unknown. Um unless you're in it, you would just have you'd be completely ignorant to the fact that these these people are operating.

SPEAKER_01 45:29

Well, I mean, yeah, it's it's you don't you know who would really think about it? And the whole industry relies on that not being the case. Um, you know, even some of the really big big players in it. Like, you know, guys like McKinsey, who's probably the most famous kind of business consultants, um, you know, they don't even put uh signage on their building in New York, their main headquarters, because it is kind of a if you're in the industry, everyone knows who McKinsey is. If you are not in the industry, no one really thinks about McKinsey very much. Uh, even though they constantly advise presidents and it's a whole thing. Um totally.

SPEAKER_02 46:03

Yeah, I interviewed uh um I interviewed shit, what's his name? Uh he wrote When McKinsey comes to town. Yes, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 46:13

Yeah, I remember I remember reading about half of it. Um it was like it was just in my some of my excerpts for something I was reading. Yeah, again, it's a fascinating world under the hood. Again, there's a whole other world of private intelligence and then private militaries, and you know, it's a you know, we are entering this really weird age where, you know, you'd always kind of think, hey, a nation state is, you know, like countries are the big sort of power players in here, but then we start to think about, okay, who's more powerful? Google or the African nation of Benin? Well, obviously Google's more powerful. And then you think, so does Google have a military? Does Disney have a military? You know, actually, yes, these days these guys have entire armies of consultants and private security and and international uh intelligence guys, and also you know, it's a so many of these organizations are are being sort of doubled up even as uh consultants and a few other things. And there's a then there's a whole other world on top of that of um I guess the overvetting is a really odd problem that's unique to Western intelligence as well. Um you know, I can go down that rabbit hole here, rabbit hole if you want, but yeah. Uh again, it's a weird world.

SPEAKER_02 47:24

Nice. And so just from your own experiences, you were doing this freelance. Yeah. Correct? Yes. Okay. Um, and finally, just on this line of questioning, presumably people listening to this will find it as fascinating as I do and would be thinking to themselves, how could I somehow insert myself into this world? Um, I don't want to offer you too sappy of a question, like how can someone do it, but that also is kind of what I'm asking. I honestly don't know.

SPEAKER_01 48:00

It is it is mostly about who you know, it is mostly about making friends within that weird circle. Um, I mean, it's it's there's far easier ways to get into it. Obviously, you know, uh it's pretty much a pipeline that the moment you join, let's say, an intelligence agency of one of the major nations, uh, the moment you either leave or you get headhunted whilst you're there, uh, you'll leave that directly into you know being offered jobs with one of these intelligence firms. Um, if you have worked at one management consulting company, you're kind of in that circle and people tend to know everyone in that circle. Uh, but a lot of it is, you know, if you work in the consultancy world or you'll work in the sort of freelance world, you end up, if you're good at your job, you end up making a lot of contacts. Um, and you end up, if you're good at your job, making a lot of uh helpful relationships. You know, it'll be things like you know, I will happily help friends when they call me and say, hey, you know, I'm stuck on a problem, uh, I can't find, you know, anyone who has any data on this particular uh, you know, Tarjik air, you know, Tajik uh military base. No one has any data. I go, I have the data on that, no problem. Here's the data you need. But when I call them in three months and say, hey, you know, I need some I need a you know, colonel or hire from uh the Russian military who would be aware of this particular fact, and they go, no problem, I'll get that sorted for you. Um, you know, it is a you end up making a lot of weird contacts and a lot of weird friends, and it is a very that's the kind of industry it is. Again, it's very, very weird. And my uh my phone number, the phone numbers and and a uh plus digits that sort of ring me through the day and the night are always completely odd. So it's uh it's always fun to wake up in the middle of the night to a plus, you know, uh yeah, it can be any any sort of number and going perfectly reasonable. Who is this? You know, no problem. We'll we'll figure it out when I answer the phone.

SPEAKER_02 49:58

Yeah, totally. Alright, so you're 23, 24, you've transitioned into this uh ghostwriting new world of opportunity. When does the red line start to conceptualize in your head?

SPEAKER_01 50:12

Again, it was I didn't think it was gonna be anything. It was more I'd kind of uh you know wanted to do something a bit more creative, I had a bit more time on my hands, and I thought, you know, let's, you know, I a few friends have kind of said to me that we should do a, you know, you should do a podcast or something like that. I went, yeah, you know, give it a shot. And I was gonna do it with a uh another journalist here in in uh in WA in Western Australia, and but it was gonna be on Australian politics, and we kind of we got the show going and I sent a tape of the first episode off to a friend, uh a couple of producers I knew um who immediately told me, hey, jokes or genocide, don't do both. So I had to kind of um you know redo the seriousness of the show, so it wasn't, you know, because I'm you know, this is what kind of is a bit odd because in the show we're I'm very serious from almost all of it, whereas I think in real life I'm a lot more relaxed about most things. Um yeah, and then we kind of did the first episode, which was Afghanistan, and was meant to be our international when we pivot back to Australian politics. Um we talk about West Papua, which is kind of very close to Australia, it's part of Australian foreign policy. Yeah. Uh, you know, housing crisis, I think, was our third, and that was yeah, it did okay. And then we did Yemen and the you know, like the other, you know, the show was gonna pivot the other journalists that now I'm gonna go do something else. And when, yeah, okay, I'll I'll do the red line because I'll see how it goes. And uh it kind of took off a little bit from there, and you know, it's been going bigger and bigger and bigger ever since. And now we've got a big team and lots of people, and uh yeah, pretty shocked with with where it's at at the moment. Millions of monthly downloads, correct? Yeah, about two million a month, which is always made always absolutely boggers me.

SPEAKER_02 52:02

Yeah. Which puts you right at the tail end of the podcast attribution, which is it would make you one of Australia's biggest podcasts, surely.

SPEAKER_01 52:11

Yeah, I think we'd be in the top you know point something percent. Um but yeah, like it's it's still just boggles my mind that people listen and uh tune in every week. So again, chuffed about it. Well, congratulations, man. Again, but it's also like it isn't congratulations. Oh, well, thank you very much. But again, it's not it's not just me. I know it sounds, you know, uh like it's my voice on the show and everything, but it's you know, the only reason this thing works and the way it works now, the comment we get most often is is that the show is very well researched, and that's because we have this massive research team uh pulling together just crazy amounts of work and time. Uh and then like I cannot, you know, stress how reliant I am on my team, and it is in you know, I keep telling them that it's weird that you know you'll get government uh briefings and your government reports, and then you'll get what the red line guys give you. And I I can honestly say the red line briefings are usually better. Um and they are you know particularly yeah, some of these some of the the older staff have also like completely worked out how to write, so they know they they even know which bits that are underline. They're like, Michael is 100% gonna want to know that fun fact, and it'll be right there, ready to go, and everything. So yeah, like when we put an episode together, it's not unusual that when I go, you know, the team has gone away, done their research, come back, and I've done my kind of preliminary research to see, get my head around it before I go into the first meeting with them, and they'll hand me like a 50-60 page packet of like everything with links and extra bits and and yeah, just have to go go through that, and that kind of forms the basis of the episode. So yeah, as much as it's uh you know, it sounds like it's uh it's my show, it's very much we've only got to where we are because we have this amazing team behind it.

SPEAKER_02 54:01

And what year did you settle on the format, like when it really became the red line? Three guests fortnightly publication.

SPEAKER_01 54:08

Pretty much from episode one. This is what the format's been from the first episode. Um we originally were gonna do what year was that? 2019. It'd be October 2019. Um so we were originally gonna do all the guests at the same time, and then I tried to book an episode like that and then realized it's almost impossible to get guests in in any time slot, let alone try and get a few on at the same time. Um like you know, the yeah, this is the crazy bit. Like obviously we have guests from lots of different time zones and all over the place. So my diary is just an absolute nightmare of different time zones to deal with all the time. Um but you know, if for guests it makes it a bit more flexible because I can, you know, the have one at 2 a.m. and one at 3 a.m. and one at midday and kind of go from there. But yeah, try to get them all on on uh a single panel. I I have PTSD nightmares just thinking about trying to book those again. Um but yeah, that's so the format has been pretty consistent the whole time. Um that's you know, because it that's the whole format that we wanted, which was all uh you know, to get a few different points of opinion in on a certain subject.

SPEAKER_02 55:20

And the red line as a business, because you do produce more than the show, is that correct?

SPEAKER_01 55:27

Uh well, kind of like we do, so I so the red line is just the red line. Um and then you know, obviously we do consulting and a few bits and pieces as well. Um, you know, people quite often hire us for research, which is as I said, fantastic researchers. Um, yeah, and then obviously Redline has we have this new sister show uh called Context Matters, we're doing with the guys over at Economics Explained. Um, and then we've got uh you know I also do lots of consulting work on the side, but Redline's never been, you know, a big profit generator. Um obviously the consulting stuff does, but the show for us, you know, we're not selling we're not selling uh uh Enu Mits and uh black powder coffee or anything like that. So you know it makes it definitely limits limits your revenue streams, I guess. But you know, it's always been uh You're not selling AG1. Oh not yet. You know, you you know there's something I you know you if I do it, it'll be it'll be fantastic. I mean, you know, this uh Somalia is running out of food and there's an embargo, but you don't have to be embargoed thanks to HelloFresh, and then we'll just bang into it. That's the plan. Um yeah.

SPEAKER_02 56:33

Oh my goodness. That would be that would be an absolutely perfect transition. That's closer to the original format.

SPEAKER_01 56:38

Probably would be.

SPEAKER_02 56:39

Um but yeah, absolutely seamless transition.

SPEAKER_01 56:42

You know, it's yeah, and that's it is an odd thing. You know, I speak to you know other creators who are kind of in this field doing this, and it's always an interesting kind of I think the ones who are the long-term success and the ones who do you know really well at this for the you know quite a long period of time, are the ones who aren't as financially driven by it. And this is the thing, you know, I've had sit-downs with guys from uh from YouTube and a few other places who will tell you straight up and go, look, if you're willing to go more bombastic and and partisan, lots more money. Um but obviously, you know, that would be a you do that, congrats, lots of money, but at the same time you also end up uh selling yourself is not the right word, but you just you know, I don't think the rest of the industry will take you credibly after that. Um plus if you keep it in a format where you enjoy what you do and it's still you know, it it doesn't feel you know, I as like it's interesting to sort of think about, but I you know, I I again this is why I don't talk about myself. Um I still feel I I feel I could walk away from it at any point. It doesn't feel like I'm not my house doesn't rely on the red line doing what it does, which is takes a little bit of pressure off and still keeps it as an interesting fun project for me, I guess. Um so yeah, most of our like our Patreon goes towards effectively keeping you know the lights on, keeping stuff and lawyers and everything else we need uh on retainer because good god, there's uh some episodes you don't need anything, but others, my god, you have to get people to look over every line you're about to say, particularly anything with a mining company. Good god, we've got to go get everything double checked.

SPEAKER_02 58:17

Economics Explains that's such a fun uh partner to be working with, and as well, another great Australian content creator.

SPEAKER_01 58:26

Yes, yes, it's uh it is really yeah, crazy how that whole thing came along. I won't say too much about it, uh, because obviously he's right pretty closed about how he does his stuff and uh his process and everything else, and uh I'm not gonna dox him and I'm not gonna you know out him for anything anything. Um so I will I you know pretty much will keep everything to what we do. I think I'm a bit more open about how redline runs and how he does his stuff. But yeah, it's uh been a really interesting partnership to kind of see how the two of us two of us work. Um completely different styles. Um yeah, which is we're always really interesting because I've you know I've been a fan for his uh his channel for a very long time. You know, I he did he also does that thing I love where it's like taking a really yeah difficult concept and kind of breaking it right down and making it much more digestible. So yeah, it just seemed like a uh a really good partnership and a really good uh kind of collaboration to work on this uh extra channel. So it's been interesting to kind of having that going and then red line as well, and you know, having this two very different styles of of content, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 59:27

Congrats, man. That's that's amazing because he clearly he totally gets how to um whether it's from a production standpoint or the script or whatever it is, but the the success of his channel and YouTube alone uh is just to have watched it from afar. Because I remember I think he started posting in 2019-ish, similarly, it was just before COVID. I remember watching one of his first videos about the um uh was it the Australian guy who made billions on Hong Kong racing or something like that. And just since then, you know, he's taking these economic lessons that I would have done at university, put really, really good narrative behind it, good graphics, and I think he's millions of subscribers at this point on YouTube, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:00:12

Yeah, yeah. He'd be what is he up to these days? He's at two just about crack two and a half million subscribers, which is huge.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:19

I mean, what a beast.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:20

And he deserves every bit of it. He works really hard, he uh you know, does a lot of uh yeah, a lot of work on these ones, and and again, great guy, great program, very happy to be working with him.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:32

All right, mate. So in the time we have left, I just would love to have you open up a little bit like you did earlier with Turkmenistan. But from an Australian perspective, so Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, these are super crit maybe Papua New Guinea less, but Indonesia specifically, so critical to Australia's geopolitics. Yet I feel personally, maybe I'm a representation of the rest of Australia, I just don't know really anything about the country, why it matters, etc. So, from an Australian perspective, could you please explain Indonesia, Indonesia's geopolitics?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:08

Okay, so Indonesia is an incredibly complex nation. And again, everything's kind of up in the air. They went through an election, you know, like about two weeks ago, so everything's pretty new and fresh. But generally, it's Indonesia is an amazingly, amazingly complex and difficult situation to go through. And I think you know, there are a few things to kind of get your head around before you even dive into Indonesia. One is the fact that you know Indonesia is big enough that if you put the sort of western tip in London, the eastern tip would be somewhere near Kabul. It's that big, and people don't realise how huge that is.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:38

Wow, hectic.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:39

Um you have some places like you know, Jakarta, it has the highest per capita Twitter use anywhere in the world, or did at one point, I don't know if that's still true, but it was again very, very connected city, very, very online city, and then you have other parts of the country which still don't have power or electricity yet. Um, you know, from quite a lot of these tiny islands through in the middle of the country, it is quicker to send something, you know, from one of these tiny islands to London than it is to send from one tiny island to another tiny island, because the infrastructure is just not built in the middle of the, you know, in a lot of the places in the country. You know, you've got right in the east of the country, you've got you know places like Arche, which are uh have only just kind of almost got a peace deal with effectively a they're a breakaway uh state that doesn't want to be with the rest of them. You've got West Papua, right you know, in the very west, uh very east of the country, which has its own issues. Um it's a massive, massive country. We're talking 300 and I think it's 340-ish million people. Um, you know, that's a huge population. Amazing. Uh and the entire country, uh, you know, I'm I'll double Google it. 270, 280, sorry. Not 340, not 320. Holy crap. I'm looking at the I'm looking at the stats. I'm looking at the stats for 10 years from now. Anyway, um, 280. Oh, no, that was 2021. So it'll be probably somewhere around the two, two ninety-ish uh by this point, I'd imagine. So only a casual 40 million off, so two two times Australia, I guess. Exactly. Or one and a half, but anyway. Yeah, rounding error. Rounding error. Um, yeah, this is a country who has had effectively, you know, uh came out of the Second World War as a Dutch colony, but you know, had occupation by the Japanese, and then had rebellions, and then had almost a communist government kind of take over, and then went right back to a very harsh pro-US government, uh, and has had this kind of heavy military presence throughout its politics for years and years and years, uh, has had good connections with Australia, um, and whether it be you know the Australians will help train some of their police and help train some of their armed forces. They've got an armed forces, which is incredibly oldly built. You know, you've got you know most of their navy and uh, you know, some of the really high-tech stuff is all from like Germany and and uh the Netherlands and Spain. At the same time, you know, this they were about to buy a whole bunch of Russian jets, but that deal's been cancelled, obviously, with the war. Um, you know, they don't completely tie themselves to the US, they're not completely tied to China, they are have lots of investment coming in from China, but at the same time, you know, they openly uh you know push back against China in the South China Sea, particularly in some of the very northern islands of Indonesia. Um, you know, this is a thoroughly complex country, uh, whether it be you know Java, which is the main island, uh, um which is you know huge populations and not quite enough infrastructure to figure out how to do it, uh, and desperately trying to become a manufacturing hub and become really important, but always trying to run that boundary. You know, they they're trying to make themselves more competitive for manufacturing, but at the same time haven't got a lot of the infrastructure that requires, uh, you need to get that off the ground, and you know, haven't uh curved some of the workers' rights that would, you know, are a concern for some international business. Uh at the same time, you know, they're coming leaps and bounds. And they're already, and we know if you look at you know some of these Southeast Asian organizations like ASEAN, you know, Indonesia is the power player. You know, it's the way that you know we kind of view US leadership in NATO is what Indonesia's trying to be for Southeast Asia, not militarily, but just a very powerful political organization who has lots of money and and influence to throw around. Uh plus, you know, a huge Islamic population. And it's you know really you know at the core of Indonesian politics, I guess, is everything is about keeping all these islands together. Again, London to Kabul, it's a you know, it's thousand tens of thousands of islands in the space that big. Uh so you really have to struggle and you really have to work incredibly hard to keep everyone on the same page, which is why they've done so much effort into making sure everyone speaks the same language. And you know, there's obviously different languages inside the country, but Bahamas's the main one. Um, you know, making sure everyone has uh buy into the idea of a united Indonesia because again, you know, it's it's a pretty foreign concept and unless you want to go back quite a long time. Uh and then even when it was under the Dutch East Indies, the Dutch really didn't run it very centralized. So it's been really odd to see how successful they have been keeping this uh situation together and really only having let's call it three provinces of the whole thing uh have active sort of rebellious or uh separatist movements which you for something that big and that disconnected where islands would very easily want to you know find time to break away uh it's been quite successful. And for Australia it is incredibly important to our geopolitics because all of our oil, gas, every all of our export everything we have effectively will come through probably near Ind near through Indonesian or near Indonesian waters. Whether it's the Malacca Strait, whether it's the Timor Sea, whether it's any of these stuff, all of it will pass through these choke points in Indonesia. You know it's there is nothing more terrifying for Australia if then you know if Indonesia was let's say fall into a a nasty civil war or have a massive pirate problem or a terrorist problem or anything like that or even just uh you know have one of these small you know Jamar Islamia kind of groups get their hands on on anti-ship missiles even just the insurance costs going up on the shipping that would come from let's say China down to Australia through Indonesian waters would have massive effects on the Israeli economy right the way through. So for us, for security, you know China even just the thing like I know for context matters we did an episode kind of looking at you know what would have to happen for China to go invade Australia and pretty much the whole scenario just goes if Indonesia says no it's impossible because they can't transit through Indonesian waters and to go right round Indonesia for for China is you know I think we worked we did the math on it was something like they can if they go over Indonesia they need one or two refuels to get to Australia for a plane but if they go if they have to go around it then it's six or seven like it's a massive having Indonesia as a a northern shield for us is so crucial to our geopolitics.

SPEAKER_02 1:08:09

What about the culture of Indonesia? You've hinted at it a little bit uh speaking a lot of different languages culturally independent on a lot of these different islands uh they had to be unified at one stage give us a sense for why that's an important variable to think about well again Indonesia wants to make sure the whole is the whole archipelago sorry is is traveling down the same path and this is what you know every single part of their economy their culture their language religion uh everything is effectively designed to make sure that country stays together you know it's why you have this if you look at you know and again military structuring is more my speciality these days but when you look at their military it's just this you know not an incredibly impressive blue water navy you know it's mostly designed for coastal operations but their army is this massively uh you know manpower intensive uh so they can be all over the place at all times and make sure that if there's a disaster anywhere in the country that someone with an Indonesian flag a representative from the government will be there very quickly to help sort things out.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:14

And that's been part of it. You want these far-flung islands that frankly are probably have you know why am I paying taxes to Java? Because that's the island where Jakarta sits uh why am I paying taxes to Java? You know I have you know I'm on this tiny island in the middle of the archipelago you know you want to make sure that Java's presence is felt everywhere and and they've done a pretty good job at making sure that it's felt everywhere. Whether it's been putting you know telephone cables or power cables or supplying mail or you know as as we kind of opened on the Indonesia piece talking about is uh you know as much as it's quite difficult to send some packages from you know one island to another every package you send is losing the government money you know it's a it's an impr it's a painful thing to do because you know why would you have this entire operation to go from one island to another when you might send three packages in a month you know it's one of those things. But the government has put all this effort into make sure that that infrastructure exists. So again there are a lot of things I can criticize the Indonesian government for but generally you know it's it is incredibly impressive that they managed to keep the country as together as they have um yeah like and culturally is it significant that they are majority Muslim? It's it's odd so obviously there are different parts of you know Arche right on the very tip of the the West is much more uh ideologic you know religiously driven than other parts of the country and obviously the the the Islamic faith has a massive part in in culturing country but it's not you know it will depend where you are on how heavily it's observed. You know it's it's you know if you take something like let's say how Indonesia approaches it versus how how Saudi Arabia approaches it, you know, women have a far higher participation rate in Indonesia than they would in Saudi Arabia. You know there's a lot more you know women of the workforce women are encouraged to be educated there's a lot more openness you know there's not you know in Saudi Arabia it's gonna be a lot harder to find a drink whereas mostly a lot of people in Indonesia will drink. Obviously it's very different for Bali that's not that's bo uh majority Buddhist rather than anything else. But yeah like it's you know it's about halfway you know I kind of have this this scale of you know Saudi Arabia takes religion incredibly seriously when Australia is you know probably on the opposite end of that scale uh you know someone like a a Central Asia is like it's a big thing but it's not the biggest thing. Indonesia is kind of a bit more than Central Asia but nowhere near a Saudi Arabia when it comes to how seriously they take religion. But it is again but then again that that is starting to grow in some areas of the country and there are definitely politicians that in in in the government that are very very very religious. Which is why you see occasional stories coming out like one that may be head weighed over here is that it would be illegal to you know have uh intercourse with your partner if you're not married or have a permission from the father in Indonesia and that we'll see every Australian tourist freaked out about that then not reading the fine print that A wasn't ever going to get ratified B that you had to be reported by I think it was the mother or something it was yeah it's been a long time since I looked at the exact legislation but it was yet to be reported by someone special um and yeah I don't think anyone on the tourist board was looking to enforce that one. But yeah it's it's an interesting sort of you know like every country there's always going to be fringes of politics and this is I think something I I see quite often with right Western observers looking at other countries in their politics. You know when people look at you know Russia with the Dmitry Medvedev or something like that and they go oh you know he said this and the Russian government said this well you know I obviously don't take what Marjorie Taylor Green in the United States or what Pauline Hansen in Australia says very seriously. You know there are always outliers in in every country's politics.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:06

Right.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:06

Final Michael on this line of questioning the economy uh give us the quick scorecard for Indonesia's economy and also again why it's uh critical for Australia to pay attention to so Indonesia's economy you know just double check well now that I've double checked everything um Indonesia's economy effectively is a bit odd to what you would expect you know for a country that size with you know fairly low you know per capita wages you know comparatively to uh you know to a lot of other countries in the world you know it's not manufacturing and not exporting as as much as you'd probably expect it's much more internally focused economy uh it is changing but it's got a lot more services than you probably assume there's a lot of money in tourism there's a lot of money in uh communications there's a lot of money in in real estate there's a lot of money you know it's yeah very different to what you'd expect from you know somewhere like in India where you know they're expecting to build much more China is expecting to export and expecting to become a bit of a manufacturing hub. Indonesia hasn't quite got it off the ground yet for a a whole myriad of reasons but the you know it's an economy that Australia should uh should really be focusing more on and if again the it's been a while since I looked at the exact stats and I haven't got that one in front of me but Australia it's not even in our top if Marie serves five trading partners. At one point um you know we used to do more with you know a couple of countries in in Europe than we used to do with Indonesia because again we don't we do trade bits and pieces between us but yeah we just haven't really formed that that deep connection that we probably should. And every business wants to get more involved in Indonesia but Indonesia you know hasn't quite isn't building the things that Australia is is really looking for at the moment. Some things they are I mean a huge one for Indonesia right now is obviously students that come over to study in Australia. But yeah it's a country that I think you know I think I I you know I'm a broken record sitting in in Australian government policy meetings or with within uh party policy meetings and and uh writing foreign policy documents that Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia is who we should be really looking to build up because uh a prosperous Indonesia is just such a a boom for Australia because they have such a you know we need people talk about India all the time and say India is where the future is and they go okay India is you know a growing nation it's a you know big economy but it's also got a lot of eternal problems that are going to be almost impossible to fix. Or as Indonesia has the same potential that someone like India does uh but at the same time doesn't have the intergovernmental problems that India that India does. You know it would be you know India is starting ahead on the race but they've got a handbrake on the car. Whereas Indonesia is a bit further behind it's going to take them longer to build up speed but there's no handbrake on Indonesia like there is on India which is why I'm I'm I'm very bullish on Indonesia having a very big part in global politics in in the uh in the future going forward.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:06

Michael look I would actually just love to go around the world highlighting different countries and ask you to do the same but that's the what the red line is for so uh as I will allude to in the introduction but it's a link to the show is in the podcast description but we've got 10 minutes left now uh let's see if we can just quickly get through a few more questions um non-geopolitical related but closer to you and what you're doing who are the journalists you most admire see that this is the interesting question I get asked this all the time and I never have a a good enough answer.

SPEAKER_01 1:16:46

You know there's obviously guys I really love like Tom Burgess or uh Tom Much is really good as well but I tend to have a you know because of the way the red line is you know when you look at you know obviously to kind of backtrack a little bit but you know I look at Central Asia all the time. That's my day-to-day and we're always looking at that so there are a few journalists in there that I will be constantly reading um guys like Peter Leonard are always great but because of the way the red line is that we're covering a big topic every two weeks you know that my you know obviously we have our research team who are a couple usually a couple of episodes ahead of me they're already looking into stuff they're pulling together research packets so but for me I am buried in a topic for two weeks and then I move on to the next one. So like this week you know I am we're doing an episode on Haiti and I am buried in Haiti stuff this week. So I am reading a whole bunch of journalists who disaster of a nation oh my god don't even get me started I've never been so depressed I I think I got to the end of the end of a packet and I've never wanted to pour a glass of wine more. Yeah but I am buried in a bunch of amazing journalists who I have probably never come across and unfortunately I probably won't read some of this stuff again until I come back to this region because they are amazing at at covering Haiti but you know I don't have to think about Haiti very much in my day to day so yeah there is just it's a very odd world that I feel like my entire universe becomes one country for two weeks and then I move on to something else. And that's a very odd way to be because you are buried in niches but only for you know a short amount of time.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:26

Did John Lee Anderson um come across your desk in research for Haiti? Ooh I think that did um I bet if I go into my packet I can probably control F and I'll find it I would be shocked if it that doesn't rings a bit um John he's a he's a New Yorker journalist he was a the guest that I published with yesterday on the podcast actually I have one match a conflict journalist his whole life.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:51

Yep yeah nice I have one match he's in he's in my he's in my packet so yeah lots again my my staff have done a great job putting this together um so I'm just going through that rough uh just before a few interviews tonight uh and I got a few interviews for the Haiti episode coming up after this in a bit so yeah it's a fascinating country to put together but that's uh the I think yeah it's a it's a completely weird world to what most people do who focus on a certain area war uh really general politics you know if you are you know looking at all the geopolitical things going on you might try something like an international intrigue or the New York Times and and because you are just trying to know what's going on in the world but for us we kind of I keep my eye very closely on Central Asia because that's my bread and butter.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:33

Uh I keep a general eye on the on the world but I am you know buried in really odd niche subjects for two weeks at a time uh forgive me if you already went over this but you you keep referring to your staff at the red line so are they are they contractual employees of yours? Are they freelancers?

SPEAKER_01 1:19:54

Are they volunteers how does that look like um and this sort of returns us to the business of the red line you know yeah so most of the staff on the red line will be volunteers and it is a guys who want to kind of get involved in geopolitics or already very involved and just like the show will they want to get you know be in the thick of it and this is the very odd situation we're in where the show's got big enough that when we want uh you know we're in a place where we we want to know something we can call an ambassador and we'll have an ambassador on the phone and they'll sit on with one of my staff and just actually tell them what's going on and they can write that up. Um you know it is a a curse for us that effectively you know most staff members end up you know they come into the red line having some experience and they end up leaving the red line you know chief of staff to the Minister of Transport for the UK or working for the Emirati Royal family or working for North Brummond or you know it's uh like again I love it. It's it looks good for the show that we keep getting staff pillaged um and no one's no one ever quits. It's always just you know they always get walk into amazing jobs. But yeah it's been you know uh really good to kind of people get to dig their teeth into some real uh you know interesting geopolitics get access to a lot of information I think most people don't because we get given a lot of hey here's some stuff that will be really useful for your episode for your eyes only kind of stuff um which is nice uh but yeah it's just yeah but maybe a lot of guys such a good such a good receipt for the show. Yeah I mean that it's always it's uh it's a nice feeling when sort of uh you know people keep getting picked up um you know a few staff members have had you know interviews with very high prestigious uh jobs or roles and and one of the first questions I get asked is you know is Michael just as grumpy in real life or what's he like or I love the show and you know which is very odd for us I guess um but yeah no it's it's it's a cursing and a bless but I'm I'm so happy that you know when staff kind of come to me and say look you know I've got this job that's amazing I I always feel chuffed to be a part of that. So it just means we're constantly looking for good people.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:08

And most of them start off as consumers of the red line and then they write to you and say I want to be a part of this.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:13

Yeah quite a lot. Occasionally we do you know call out for a specific role like a uh you know hey you put your applications in but we get somewhere between sort of on a quiet week we'll get about two resumes a week and then on a busy week we'll get 10 or 15 particularly around student placement times. And yeah if they make a good fit we'll have them on the team and you know they uh it's a it's a ragtag team it's it's a you know I get a lot of academic supply and and you we do take a lot of those but you know I you know it's also not unusual that there's just uh staff meetings where half the meeting is just making fun of me or just telling terrible jokes across across the team so it's uh you know I generally really really enjoy the people I work with and they are some of the nicest most lovely people I I could possibly ever ask for again it what it has made the show is just how lovely and and uh and uh you know well working this team is and if you project say not even to that distant of a future say 2030 the show continues to compound you continue to attract really good individuals you continue publishing uh exceptional quality do you what what's your vision for the show does this become say almost a think tank in itself where you're publishing things under your name the red line um spin-off shows what's your both most bullish dream and then a realistic dream for where it might be in 2013 starting to publish so on our website we publish analysis so our writers are quite often publishing analysis pieces they put together and some of them are amazing. One of our writers just did this huge piece on ransomware um we had another one who just did this big piece on organized crime in the Italian football scene um you know election pieces another one on private Chinese military companies because that's the thing it's you know our writers uh you know I you know I the whole as you can probably tell by the concept of the show my general philosophy of things is I trust experts and I if that is what your thing is you want to go look into the I think I always encourage people to pursue it. You know for my staff it's very much tell me what ammunition you need and I'll help you do it. So you know our writers are obviously helping out with packets but you know let's say they have that two weeks between getting off one packet and they might be you know on the rest weeks and before they jump onto another one you know like they might come to me and say hey uh you know I've got this really odd lead for a story about Chinese uh private military contractors in Africa and how they're competing with Wagner and I go ooh that is weird okay what do you need and they go well if you know I've got this guest and we can line it up and you know I think I want to do a piece on it and yeah then effectively we can have the guys who are not you know uh give them whatever they need to put some really interesting stuff together and there's always amazing pieces on our website that come from that as well so it's between sort of the main show and then we've got all these analysis pieces on the website and then we do Patreon only content as well which is always fun and then live panels so yeah it's it's never a dull moment. So my schedule is there's a reason I work 90 hours a week I guess.

SPEAKER_02 1:25:24

So the projection is more of the same just at more scale?

SPEAKER_01 1:25:27

I'd say so you know obviously you know it's it's always interesting to kind of see what offers come on the table and you know like there's a project we have coming up that we're a part of uh doing a bit of a mini series that I'm really excited to be be part of that and uh put that that together for uh but yeah it's been you know yeah it's I I I really don't know where it's where it's gonna go um but I've never really known I guess to bring the whole interview back to where we started I've never known where I'm really gonna go um and I've kind of forest gumped my way through this entire situation. Yeah and that's so far so good I guess. Yeah so I'm interested to see where it goes but building it up on scale and uh still enjoying it I think that's the that's the biggest part but it's you know as we watch this thing grow and the team gets better and uh you know we keep going after super interesting pieces and I get to sit there and pour through crazy documents and crazy amounts of weird information that I just you know I would have probably enjoyed regardless of which but it's uh yeah I'm still enjoying it so the show will I guess keep going.

SPEAKER_02 1:26:33

Mate again I keep saying the same thing but it is just phenomenal and I'm so stoked for you uh to have achieved this sort of success there are there are a few more questions I'd like to ask but we have run up on our time so I just want to ask if you haven't I've got about I've got about 10 more minutes far away okay perfect well then let's just turn our attention to the Australian podcasting space. Economics explained you mentioned yourself do you feel like there are huge gaps in the market for good quality Australian content whether it's podcasting or otherwise absolutely I mean Australians are also way too overrepresented.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:09

I feel like you know most there's way too many in in economics and geopolitics where we're all you know Australian white guys which I'd always find funny. That's funny why is that I don't know I guess it's because we've all you know Australians are rats from a sinking ship and there's no place on the planet that hasn't got an Australian I I'm 90% sure when they go back to the moon there'll be two drunk Australians up there somehow looking for a hostel who refuse to learn the local language. Yeah I I you know the Australian podcast scene is amazing and there's you know there's problems in it you know there's a lot of programs which get funding and support who you know are just terrible other programs where it's like great info but please learn to edit um there are other ones which are great info but they could probably cut it down to half. There are other programs which are You know, doing the exact same thing again and again and again. I think there's you know, I'd hate to see how many shows there are of three friends talking about movies. Yep, some of those are really interesting. Um I generally have a rule of thumb if like there's always a niche there for someone. Um, you know, we live in a fantastic age where you know if you want to learn about lawnmowers, there's a podcast on there about lawnmower repair. And if you're into that, amazingly interesting. Um, you know, it's not going to get the biggest numbers, but you have a really loyal audience. And I think that's the the beauty of podcasting is you don't have to, you know. I'm sure that if we were to take the team off the red line and put them all towards researching YouTuber drama, we'd probably be pulling in lots and lots of views all the time. Um I don't think it'd be quite as interesting. Um, but you know, it's yeah, I I really like the fact that there is this really lots and lots of niche communities who are are putting together great, great information uh and putting it out there for people to listen to. Um yeah, so the podcasting scene's good. Obviously, it goes in twos and froes. I think this is kind of like there's always waves of lots of people join, and then a lot of people realize it's a bit harder than you think it's gonna be. Um people are shocked that they don't get you know 20,000 views on their first episode and they disappear pretty quickly. Um, I can't remember the stats, but it's something like if you make 500 views, I think you're in the top 50%. It's some crazy stat like that. It's it's very small.

SPEAKER_02 1:29:25

Um Yeah, I don't know about uh I don't know about that statistic, but if you create more than 10 episodes, you're already in the top 1% of podcasts. Yep, that does not shock me. Yeah. Yeah, again, with this. But it's also it it's such a it's such an extreme domain of extremist end, which is it's so fat-tailed the distribution. Say the top 10 shows will accrue 99% of all podcast downloads. So even if you are in the top 1%, it's not it it actually isn't critical until you're in the top 0.1%.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:58

Yeah, absolutely. Um, and it is, it's it's about consistency, it's about keep putting stuff out, and it's you know, we can never pick which episode's gonna be huge and which one's not, and we, you know, it's uh yeah, it's mostly just trying to build a loyal, consistent audience. Um, I guess that's the big big thing is uh is getting that across. But again, it's interesting, and because it's podcast, I don't have to uh iron a shirt every time, which is always nice. So, you know, your listeners can always think that about 90% of the time, if uh if you're listening to the red line, I'm probably wearing a big uh hand knitted, big woolly blue jumper and a beanie whilst talking about geopolitics while I'm sipping from a little mug of tea. So uh yeah, have that have that in the back of your mind next time you hear me talking about genocide.

SPEAKER_02 1:30:44

Final three questions, yeah, that I try to ask every guest. First being, um, what is the role that serendipity has played in your life?

SPEAKER_01 1:30:53

So the role in of separate serendipity, I think my whole life has just been a whole bunch of serendipity, as as I kind of joked about earlier. I've forest gum through quite a lot of this. Um I've been very lucky, and I think you know, luck is obviously a big part of it, but I would honestly put most of my you know my mild success, I guess, um, to just being in the right place at the right time and also just being friendly and listening to what people give me as advice. You know, I I keep hearing, you know, I kept hearing back in the early days of like, why don't you just do the red line as just you, you know, no guests? Because I'm not that clever. You know, the whole point of the show is that these are guys are who specialists, they know what they're doing. And I'm always the first. My partner always wonders why when we go shopping, you know, I can't find something, I'll just go ask one of the staff, like, hey, where are you you know, where are wheelbarrows, whatever it is. Um, and now why, you know, if I run into a question I don't know and I'm not on a live interview, you know, the first thing I'll do is I'll say, that's really interesting. Give me three give me uh half an hour, I'm gonna make a phone call and I'll come back to you with an answer. Um, because again, it's all about just you know having uh you know that networking and chatting to people. I think that's what's got me to where it is. Um so my biggest advice for everyone is don't be afraid to you know look up a stat, make a phone call, or uh, you know, go look further into something.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:21

Both. Uh do you have a favorite fictional character? Favorite fictional character?

SPEAKER_01 1:32:30

That is a really interesting one. My dignity, probably. Um, um favorite fictional character. I mean, obviously, I was a huge Lord of the Rings fan for a very long time.

SPEAKER_02 1:32:43

That one took me a minute to get yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:46

It's fictional. Um, yeah. Um I really liked, you know, I think Sam Wise Gamge has always been really like I think he's underrated as a character. Um I, you know, huge fan of Lord of the Rings growing up because obviously I'm a chubby white guy, it comes for the territory. Um, but yeah, like I always remember reading Lord of the Rings and really like kind of connecting with Sam and uh you know his story and how he's kind of bumbling his way through, but making it like the whole world is moving forward, but he's he's not you know, he's pushing the world forward without him really knowing that he's doing that. Um yeah, so if absolute go to fictional characters, Sam Wise Gamge. Plus he cooks a mean potato, that's always nice.

SPEAKER_02 1:33:28

Mate. Totally, that's such an epic one. And he gives one of the all-time great speeches at the end of the day.

SPEAKER_01 1:33:35

That whole movie is amazing. I I make my partner re-watch it with me like every every couple of years, and every time she looks at me, it's like, we're gonna watch it's the extended versions, right? I'm like, of course it's the extended versions. Um I went and watched the I've I've gonna say I went I watched the theatrical version when it on the 20th anniversary or whatever it was, and I've never been so you know distressed the whole time. I was like, Oh, there's a scene missing here. And um, yeah. Fast great books, great films, great characters. That's my it's my warm blanket. I think after reading horrifying packets of of data and uh and genocide, it's always you know, I can watch Lord of the Rings and just feel a bit better about the world, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 1:34:20

I've married into a family where their Christmas tradition is to actually watch all three of them. That is amazing. Yeah, it's it's actually the best Christmas tradition. I love it so much.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:35

That is actually a great Christmas tradition. I wish I could actually, yeah, I'd love to get that off the ground. Um, yeah, I've done the three in the cinemas back to the three extended back to back, and that was that was rough, but yeah, definitely my go-to kind of fictional character.

SPEAKER_02 1:34:49

Yeah, that's a big day. All right, Michael. Last question, uh one which you are particularly suited to answer. And I really I've asked this now, it's almost almost 200 recordings. But it is uh, what is a country that you're particularly bullish on?

SPEAKER_01 1:35:06

Ooh, particularly bullish on. Okay, now too many pick from. Um personally, I think Kazakhstan is underrated uh for a whole bunch of reasons. Their economy's going well. Uh the people are the most lovely in the entire world. Uh, I you get, you know, you look lost for more than 10 seconds, someone will come up and ask you, you know, if you if you need help. Uh economy-wise, I'm quite bullish on Indonesia in probably the sort of 10 to 15 year mark. Uh, I think Mongolia's got a good capacity to do a bit more than it has at the moment. Um I think the DRC could do a little better if it you know gets some of the problems solved in the north, but that's a big if. Um I'm very bullish on Poland going forward. They're very much becoming a centrepiece within European politics. Um I would not be shocked to see Romania do quite well uh in the next little while. Russia's obviously probably due for a bit of a bounce back um once this whole conundrum fixes itself. Uh conundrum I mean terrible, terrible military conundrum. Uh by conundrum, I mean catastrophe. Slight hiccup by you know losing most of your tanks. Um yeah. I think obviously, you know, the Swedes and uh and the Baltics the uh uh Nordics will always do well. Um I think Brazil is probably in a good position to do some good stuff. Uh Mexico is in a very good position at the moment. I think, you know, apart from gangs and a few other bits and pieces, like their overall economy's setting itself up to take over a lot of like it makes a lot more sense to pull you know factories and and capacity from China into Mexico than it does to go into India or anywhere else. Uh Vietnam also very bullish on. I think Vietnam is, you know, it has all the advantages of working with China without the baggage of working with China, uh, which is a weird thing to say, but I think you know, out of those countries. Yeah, well put um obviously there's other other ones like you know, Iran would be a monolith, a powerhouse if sanctions went off and and they changed governments. You know, there are a few bits and pieces like that. But yeah, those countries I can see there's a pretty you don't have to have big geopolitical shifts for those countries to do really, really well. Um whereas, you know, some others, like Congo, for instance, you would need to have geopolitical shifts for it to become uh much more stable. But yes, generally Indonesia, Mongolia, uh Poland and Mexico, I guess are the ones I'd probably put my put my money on at the moment.

SPEAKER_02 1:37:45

Amen. I absolutely love it, mate. Thanks for throwing Mexico in there as well. That's my pick.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:50

Again, it's doing really well. Um, obviously the gangs are a whole of the problem, um, but they are taking on the manufacturing uh capacity really well. They're getting their you know, they're forming infrastructure where they need to be doing, they're getting the power grids sorted. Obviously, there's other problems right through the country, but you know, this is a a country that's setting itself up to be you know very important within the particularly the US manufacturing sector. So, you know, uh good things go good things coming ahead. It won't be there'll be ups and downs, but you know, the trend line I'd say is a is a higher angle than uh something like an Argentina or a uh you know uh I don't know, Laos.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:30

Alright, mate. Well, look, you've been extremely generous with your time. I thank you very much. It's getting late for you now, almost 10 p.m. or something.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:38

No, I've got I'm I'm working till 3 a.m. tonight, so this is uh not it, this is almost my mid-morning.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:45

Holy hell. Yeah, nice one. But uh truly, I I I I am sincere in in everything I've said throughout. Like I love the show. I think it's extremely interesting your story, and I'm so stoked with the success of the red line, and just you know, here's to more.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:03

Well, again, anytime. It's uh always a pleasure chatting with you, and uh yeah, uh honestly uh you know take up any opportunity to to chew your ear off with with odd stories and odd fun facts. I think that's uh yeah, it's always really interesting to do this one. And uh again, anytime, anyplace, I absolutely love chatting with you and love what you guys are doing as well. Fucking earth. Cheers, mate. Talk soon.